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World Population Day and Christian Demographics
Our Global Advocacy Manager Dr Angus Crichton reflects on the continuing expansion of humanity and the shift of worldwide Christianity.
7.7 billion today, 10 billion by 2050: World Population Day highlights the continuing expansion of humanity. This growth is far from uniform. While the population of Africa will double in this period, Europe and North America scarcely registers a rise. The youthful populations of the former will start to have children of their own, sustaining this population growth, with the potential for both economic growth and strain on resources. In the latter, populations are increasingly older, placing pressures on social service provision. Migration from the expanding populations of the South to the declining populations of the North is an inevitable consequence of these and other global imbalances. These demographic trends have and continue to fuel massive changes in Christianity worldwide.
In 1910, 90% of the world’s Christians lived in Europe and North America. By 2010 this had shrunk to 40%, with 60% living in the global south. In 1910 only 9% of Africa’s population was Christian, a century later this had risen to 63%. These shifts are only likely to continue. Even with no conversions or deconversions, Africa’s Christian population is likely to double by 2050 simply because its population will have doubled. By this point, one in four Christians in the world will be African.
So how did this massive shift in the centre of Christianity’s gravity happen? While the missionary movement from the North was a crucial conduit, ultimately it is a story of how Africans, Asians and Latin Americans appropriated for themselves and shared Christ with others. SPCK historically played a valuable role by making publications available to these growing Christian populations in their own languages, encouraging a long conversation between Christ and the cultures of the Global South.
Today new centres of Christian vitality, practice and thought are flourishing across the Southern Hemisphere. Yet in some of these regions, the resources to record and share these insights are limited, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet many countries here have seen stratospheric growth: burgeoning congregations, public transport vehicles bedaubed with biblical blessings, church leaders who step into the breech when governments implode, new insights into Christ as he is praised in the traditional songs of a chiefly court. Therefore SPCK is partnering with African theological institutions to create the African Theological Network Press (ATNP). ATNP makes African theological titles available in multiple locations across the continent and in the Global North, challenging systemic log-jams that either lock these publications up in the Global North or only in one region of the continent.
In contrast, SPCK’s own homeland has seen a precipitous decline in its Christian population, with membership of the Church of England falling from 50% of the population to less than 5% through the twentieth century. The demographic trends of World Population Day, Europe’s low fertility rates and aging populations (both within and beyond the church), adds to declining numbers of Christians. As the South continues to turn Christian and migrates North, more than half the churchgoers in Inner London are within black-majority congregations, with vigorous church planting initiatives beyond the capital. The greatest missionary challenge SPCK/IVP faces is on its own doorstep, with a majority who are indifferent to institutional ‘religion’, while continuing to ask profound questions about their lives. Alongside its publishing work, SPCK’s programmes Diffusion (improving literacy among prisoners) and Assemblies (guides for teachers delivering school assemblies) build connections with audiences beyond the churches.
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